This is an FBI investigation document from the Epstein Files collection (FBI VOL00009). Text has been machine-extracted from the original PDF file. Search more documents →
FBI VOL00009
FI Suomi
EFTA01074017
31 pages
Pages 21–31
/ 31
Page 21 / 31
FI
21 more understanding of the G77." On balance, the actual effect of policy issues and ideologies on the 2012 elections remains uncertain. But the way that Australia successfully managed to limit possible damage from its Middle East positions shows that judicious steps and a good communication strategy can help compartmentalize difficult issues. In this regard, the Finnish campaign probably suffered from a communication deficit. Australia and Luxembourg both succeeded in building a narrative that emphasized their bilateral relationships, joint interests, or a shared identity with each potential voter. As noted earlier, the campaign strategy chosen by these two candidates focused on such goals. But their everyday attitude also contributed to it. For instance, one delegate observed, "The permanent representative of Luxembourg was very approachable. She was present at all events, and always the first to agree to meet candidates from other countries for other posts." Finland, on the other hand, had more difficulties in emphasizing its shared interests and bilateral relationships with voters. Although its image in New York was generally considered as good, its actual achievements and its own identity were less known to many delegations. Finland's communication strategy, focused on UN issues, did not help to give others a better sense of the country. The campaign did not communicate enough on Finland's own achievements and identity. In a paradoxical way, Finland—which had always been a leader in women's rights and gender equality—had no woman playing a visible role in its campaign team. Finland also did not manage to give an emotional dimension to its campaign, the way Luxembourg did in New York. According to delegates, Finland's communication seemed intermittent, based on specific events or initiatives, whereas its two competitors subtly but continuously reminded other delegations of their candidacies. Finland's campaign was probably also handicapped by the fact that its foreign policy tools, and in particular its official development assistance (ODA), are largely focused toward multilateral institutions. Apart from the group of its ten or so cooperation partners, Finland was not in a position to show to potential voters the actual results of its contributions to international development. As one delegate put it, "It's not enough to have a good UN record, you need to better explain what you do." 6. Ethics As is the case for all candidates running for elections, countries campaigning for a seat at the Security Council have to face, at one moment or another, difficult ethical dilemmas on how votes should or should not be won. EFTA01074037
Page 22 / 31
FI
All three candidates seem to have cautiously refrained from committing to defend specific positions at the Council, especially on regional issues, that would not be consistent with their traditional policies. As one delegate indicated: "Authenticity and integrity matter. There is no point in hiding. You cannot take commitments you would not respect once you are elected at the Security Council. Candidates need to preserve their long-term credibility." Beyond policy issues, the way candidates can use the tools of their foreign policy during the campaign, and in particular their official development assistance (ODA), is also often debated. According to interviews, it appears that all candidates made sure to respect agreed guidelines on development policies during their campaign. They assumed that they could, when requested during the campaign, provide punctual assistance only if it was consistent with their existing policies. One delegate mentioned that a handful of countries offered electoral support in exchange for funding of dubious projects, but such offers were not accepted by the candidate who had been approached. As one delegate noted, "the ODA status is a key element of the campaign and countries are aware of it." All candidates emphasized their development cooperation. Luxembourg's effort, with 1.05% of its gross national income devoted to ODA, was well perceived. Australia benefited from the increase in its ODA. Finland's long track record as an important donor was also an asset, but probably to a lesser degree than for its competitors. Almost half of Finland's ODA is delivered through multilateral channels and, hence, less "visible," according to some, than that of Australia or Luxembourg." It also seems that Finland's development cooperation tools and procedures were less geared to responding to punctual requests than the ones of its competitors. *** In hindsight, Finland was at a disadvantage compared to its two competitors. It was caught "in the middle" and had difficulties to establish a profile consistent with its own identity. It did not have the reach and the resources of Australia as a regional power, and it could not play the "small-state" card, which was the mark of Luxembourg. The "anti-EU sentiment" forced a competition with Luxembourg that Finnish diplomats had probably not anticipated. Their strategy, focused on UN issues, did not appeal enough to other member states, which tend to put a premium on issues of bilateral interest. More importantly, Finland did not have the same natural constituency that Australia and Luxembourg could rely on, thanks to cultural, geographic, and historic ties. Given its strong record and good image at the UN, Finland would probably have been 1d According to OECD/DAC data, Finland allocated in 2011 40 % of its ODA in unearmarked contributions to multilateral institutions (compared with 32% for Luxembourg and 14% for Australia). www.oecd.org/dac/stats/statisticsonresourceflowstodevelopingcountries.htm EFTA01074038
Page 23 / 31
FI
23 more at ease with a different set of competitors. But the specific configuration of the 2012 election and the way Australia and Luxembourg played their strengths narrowed its chances of success. There is no way to tell if a different campaign would have yielded a happier outcome for Finland. Some of the issues with which Finnish diplomats had to wrestle in the run-up to the election are of a structural nature. They probably could not have been overcome with a different campaign. These issues relate to the definition of the international profile of the country, the structure of its development cooperation policy, and the balance between its multilateral and bilateral diplomacies. The post-election phase offers an opportunity for Finland to take stock of these elements and move forward. II. Lessons learned The many interviews conducted for this survey offered opportunities to identify lessons learned from the 2012 campaign which can be of use for Finland but also for its close partners of the Nordic states and of the European Union, as well as for other UN members. Some of these lessons are directly related to elections. Others deal with larger issues and go beyond the electoral context at the UN. 1. For Finland Finland should remain engaged in the work of the United Nations and on the international scene. In the wake of its defeat at the Security Council election, Finland might be tempted to reduce its involvement with the United Nations or with other countries. On the contrary, Finland should use the lessons learned from the campaign to build on its strengths and adapt, where needed, its diplomatic tools. 1.1. Stay engaged in the work of the UN The reality which emerges from interviews with delegates in New York is that last year's elections have not tarnished the image of the country at the UN. Most delegates acknowledge Finland's good UN record and consider that electoral successes or failures come and go and are part of the life of the organization. They minimize the significance of the electoral vote: "What differentiated the candidates was unpredictable. It's a beauty contest. It's like the stock market. You win, you lose." Several delegates noted that the big winner of the 2012 election, Australia, had failed in its previous bid sixteen years ago. As interviews showed, Finland has many assets and brings a contribution to the work of the UN which is widely respected. Finland should certainly continue what it currently does. This includes its contributions to UN funds and programs (though, as indicated below, some adaptation could be considered), but also specific initiatives like its work on mediation and conflict prevention. It also includes its support to informal dialogue among member states at the EFTA01074039
Page 24 / 31
FI
24 UN to facilitate discussions on policy issues and to help improve working methods of UN bodies. For instance, since 2003, Finland has hosted a retreat every fall for current and incoming members of the Security Council to share their experiences and reflect on the work of the Council. More than fifty states have participated in this retreat since its creation. Finland also started a similar annual retreat two years ago for the current and incoming presidents and vice-presidents of the General Assembly and its main committees. Continuing these initiatives would be a useful support to the work of the UN and a good investment for Finland. Finland could do even more. Participation in peace operations has traditionally been a strong point in its UN record. However—due to budgetary and other constraints-its contributions to UN operations have significantly decreased in the past two decades. Its participation in EU- and NATO-led operations also decreased recently. Finland's overall contribution to international missions dropped from a high of about 2,000 in the 1990s to currently around 400 soldiers and 100 civilians.15 Finland could reflect on ways to revive its participation in peace operations and bring concrete support to current efforts to address crises, in particular in Africa. 1.2. Sharpen its international profile and communicate more effectively Finland's international profile reflects its values and priorities. Delegates with whom IPI met generally recognized these values—in particular human rights and gender equality, rule of law, sustainable development—and the role played by Finnish officials and personalities as problem solvers or mediators. But interviewees sometimes seemed to wonder what differentiated Finland from its regional partners within the Western group, the EU, or among the Nordics. As noted earlier, most delegates thought that there was no significant difference in terms of policies between the three candidates. Some considered that Finland's values and roles could seem contradictory. One delegate observed that Finland was generally perceived as not having a "hidden agenda," but at the same time that its positions on social issues could give the impression that it was among those which tend to "impose their concepts and do not recognize cultural differences." Right or wrong, perceptions matter, and views expressed by several delegates suggest that there may be a need for Finland to make sure that the gap does not widen between its objectives and the way some of its policies are perceived internationally. Finland could seize the current opportunity to reflect on its international profile, on what makes this profile different or similar to the ones of its closest partners, and on ways to communicate more effectively about what it stands for and what it does. One can look, for instance, at Finland's voluntary contributions to multilateral organizations. These contributions are an important dimension of the country's support 15 See Finland's country profile in IPI's project "Providing for Peacekeeping," available at www.ipinst.org/peace-operations/providing-for-peacekeeping/programslist.html . EFTA01074040
Page 25 / 31
FI
25 to the work of the UN and other institutions. But several interviewees noted that such contributions, spread across a wide range of programs and agencies, may not give a proper visibility to this important effort. Finland could consider a more selective funding strategy and concentrate its efforts on a smaller number of funds and agencies working in areas which match its most important priorities. This would help build a more concrete narrative on Finland's development aid. For the Foreign Ministry, a more effective communication strategy would also require a reflection on ways to better include communication techniques in the training and professional development of diplomats. The 2012 election showed how Luxembourg— thanks to a well-thought-out communication strategy and to the skills of its campaign team—successfully managed to create with other countries a shared sense of mutual understanding that won widespread sympathy to its candidacy. More attention could be paid to communication skills and style in the multilateral context. 1.3. Diversify its bilateral partnerships Finland's involvement in the work of multilateral organizations cannot be separated from its bilateral diplomacy. One of the main lessons learned from this survey of the 2012 election is that, to win international support, dynamic bilateral relationships remain what matters most. Finland could review the tools at its disposal—its diplomatic network, its capacity to engage partners in joint initiatives, and its ODA—to better diversify its bilateral partnerships. Finland's substantial diplomatic network is a strong asset. But the campaign has revealed a few blind spots—in particular in Francophone Africa—and a certain deficit of communication with Arab countries. Following up on previous efforts to adapt its representation abroad,i6 Finland could explore how to fill in these gaps. Cooperation with other Nordic or EU countries might be a way to identify cost-effective options. Finland's ODA is a major asset and could perhaps be more clearly connected to its foreign policy. Development cooperation and Finland's diplomacy are already closely interdependent. As one interviewee noted, "Finland puts its money where its mouth is." But there may be a need to reflect on ways to better integrate Finland's development cooperation with its foreign policy and have it become part of its bilateral dialogue with a wider range of countries. In a context of heavy budgetary and staffing constraints, the emphasis put on a limited number of cooperation partners and on multilateral channels to deliver ODA makes eminent sense. There is no question that Finland should continue to prioritize the most effective use of its resources from a development perspective. But by redeploying only a margin of its ODA to bilateral cooperation, Finland could reach out to a wider range of 16 See Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland, Report on Finland's Representation Abroad, September 2009, available at http://formin.finlandEpublic/default.aspx?nodeid=4475384contentlan=28,culture=en-US. EFTA01074041
Page 26 / 31
FI
NO
SE
'16 countries than it currently does. According to OECD/DAC data,17 Finland currently allocates 40 % of its ODA in unearmarked contributions to multilateral institutions (compared with 35% for Sweden, 27% for Denmark, and 24% to Norway). If Finland were to align itself with its Nordic partners, and devote for instance only 35% of its ODA—like Sweden—to general support to multilateral organizations instead of 40%, it would free more than 75 million US dollars annually that it could allocate to bilateral cooperation. Going down to 27%— which would be comparable to what Denmark does—would free more than 180 million US dollars. Alternatively, given that Finland's ODA is expected to grow in the coming years,ie it could choose to allocate its surpluses to bilateral development cooperation. This would not diminish Finland's standing with multilateral institutions and would create opportunities to engage a more diverse group of partners with whom it could conduct small-scale projects. The recommendations proposed above should not be misinterpreted as an invitation to subordinate foreign policy priorities to the quest for optimal performance at UN elections. For a country like Finland, major election campaigns only take place once every fifteen to twenty years, and electoral strategies are probably not the best guide for defining policies. But the analysis of the recent electoral campaign helps to shed light on some gaps in Finland's diplomacy. These recommendations are meant to help Finland—or other countries with a similar profile—explore ways to better pursue its priorities, to build more diversified relationships, and to better connect with the rest of the UN membership. 2. For the Nordic countries Finland's defeat came at the same time as Sweden's failure to be elected to the UN Human Rights Council and four years after Iceland's unsuccessful bid for a Security Council seat. Although each election had its own logic, many in New York consider these recent failures as "a wake-up call for the Nordics." Still, some delegates warned against "jumping to conclusions too quickly." Interviews confirmed the generally "good image" of Nordic countries at the UN, even though some expressed more nuanced views.i9 Several elements, however, are worth noting. Given their long-time record of support to conflict prevention, mediation, and peace- making, their leading role in many UN and international debates and initiatives, and their 17 ODA from DAC countries to multilateral organizations in 2011, available at www.oecd.org/dadstats/statisticsonresourceflowstodevelopingcountries.htm . 18 In the EU, Finland is committed to achieve by 2015 an ODA/GNI rate of 0.7% (from 0.53% in 2011). See Finland's Development Policy Programme, February 16, 2012, available at http://formin.finlandEpublicklefault.aspx?contentid=251855&nodeid=15452&contentlan=2&culture=en- US . 19 See section 1-5 above. EFTA01074042
Page 27 / 31
FI
SE
17 generous contributions to the UN and to its peace operations, Nordic countries may have been tempted to see themselves as—according to one delegate—a "moral pillar" of the UN. Large segments of the UN membership acknowledge this particular profile of the Nordics. But, as far as electoral campaigns are concerned, they also tend to consider a Nordic candidate as one competitor among others, and very often not too different politically from the other Western candidates. Nordic states may need to better take into account these evolving views. They may also want to revisit their UN record. If Nordic funding to UN funds and programs remains higher than that of other donors, Nordic participation in UN peace operations has declined over the last two decades. Support for peace efforts has been less prominent. For a number of countries the Nordic "difference" has become less evident. Several delegates wondered about the "visibility" of Nordic aid. Some mentioned the more prominent profile assumed by new actors like Turkey, India, or—in the development field—China. Nordic countries that are also members of the EU may also wish to revisit the way they reconcile these two identities. It appears that, during the campaign, Finland did not get full EU support. According to interviews, its European profile seemed less evident to some fellow EU members than that of Luxembourg. In a similar way, Ireland got strong European backing at the election to the Human Rights Council, but not Sweden. There is a need for the Nordic states to address these perceptions. They could in particular reflect together on how a renewed commitment to the work of the UN and a more effective communication strategy could help them remain true to their values and at the same time engage more effectively with the other countries. Indeed, many of the Nordic countries' numerous achievements can be an inspiration for others if the Nordics find the right way to communicate about them.2° 3. For the EU Recent campaigns showed sensitivities among UN member states on the issue of the representation of European Union countries at the Security Council. Such sensitivities, exacerbated by the recent debates on the EU status at the General Assembly, will probably remain for a while. Even if the "anti-EU sentiment" fades away, EU countries can hardly expect to continue—as they did in the previous decade—to regularly get the two seats allocated to the WEOG at Security Council elections (except if they have a "clean slate," with only two candidates for two seats, or if all three candidates are from the EU). In this context, competition between EU members for elections at the Security Council— 20 See The Economist, "The Next Supermodel," Special Report on the Nordic Countries, February 2-8, 2013. EFTA01074043
Page 28 / 31
28 or other major UN elections—plays against the interest of EU members themselves. It gives a competitive edge to the non-EU candidates who enter the race and who can count on voters, including EU members, to split their support between EU and non-EU. Within the EU, intra-European competition also generates disappointment for the candidate that is not supported by its closest partners and resentment among member states in case some EU members actually take sides in the campaign. Vis-a-vis the UN membership, competition between EU members shows a lack of unity and solidarity within the Union and belies the European aspiration to a common foreign policy. The members of the EU need to reflect on these perceptions and on ways to avoid competition among EU members at future elections. This issue raises numerous difficulties both political—EU membership should not make it more difficult for countries to candidate to a seat at the Security Council—and technical—how to organize rotation between EU and non-EU countries for the WEOG seats or for the Eastern European seat? A clear understanding among EU members that they need to work together to avoid electoral competition would strengthen the credibility of the EU foreign policy and would help enhance its contribution to the work of the UN. 4. For the UN membership Big electoral campaigns are now a fact of life at the United Nations. The contest for seats at the Security Council is probably the most intense, but elections to other posts- such as the presidency of the General Assembly—or to other UN bodies—including ECOSOC and its subsidiary commissions or committees—are sometimes also very competitive. Countries tend to devote a larger amount of resources and mobilize at a higher political level to promote their candidacies. The stakes are higher than they used to be twenty years ago. Some delegates believe that such competition is inherently a "healthy process" and a rare occasion for member states to present themselves to the UN membership and to submit their foreign policy to a reality check. Others are more "uncomfortable" with big campaigns and all the effort which is put into them. They consider that too much energy and resources are invested in these contests and distract from the real work of the UN. Member states could consider various options to build on the merits of open debate and fair competition while at the same time limiting the risks of opportunistic actions which are not in the long-term interest of the organization. 4.1 Electoral campaigns require that candidates approach each potential voter and engage in a dialogue to find some common ground that can yield voter support. Bilateral EFTA01074044
Page 29 / 31
29 considerations are a decisive factor. But member states could also use this opportunity—more often than is currently the case-to engage the candidates on policy issues at the UN. 4.2 Substantial financial resources are invested in electoral campaigns at the UN— mostly for elections to the Security Council but also increasingly for elections to other bodies. Some countries are transparent about their campaign budget,21 others are not. Candidates also leverage their development cooperation to woo voters, but the issue remains generally quite opaque. Some reflection on these issues is needed. UN members cannot pretend to ignore them. There is probably not much point in trying to establish new rules or a code of conduct. But on a voluntary basis some countries could take the initiative to promote transparency in electoral campaigns, and this may create incentives for others. On a voluntary basis, a candidate could: Be transparent from the very beginning of the campaign about its campaign budget (i.e., additional expenses for staff, communication, visits, compared to normal expenses in non-campaign years), and Reaffirm the rules and principles of its development cooperation (and preferably their consistency with internationally-agreed rules and guidelines, such as the ones of OECD-DAC). Candidates would only need to disclose their additional expenses during the campaign years. This would not penalize those candidates who consistently devote important resources to UN funding or to activities related to the UN independently from their electoral ambitions. Increased transparency could help limit the inflation of campaign budgets as well as opportunistic behaviors of countries that might adapt their development cooperation to short-term electoral purposes. 4.3 Beyond the issue of elections, interviews conducted for this survey shed light on a need for a dialogue on the financing of development cooperation. Interviews for this study clearly showed diverging views among UN members on development cooperation and expectations related to it. Numerous delegates, in particular from the G77, indicated that donors are gauged according to the "visibility" of the aid they provide. According to interviews, new donors from the global south tend to prefer funding tangible projects, whereas traditional donors put the emphasis on more indirect forms of cooperation. 21 All three WEOG candidates made this information available to their parliaments, and Australia also communicated about it to the larger public. EFTA01074045
Page 30 / 31
30 Each set of donors seems to follow its own rules: South-South cooperation for the new donors, OECD-DAC for the traditional ones, with little overlap between the two. if the shared goal is to promote development, there might be a need to reflect on how to create some common ground between these different models. In addition to ODA and South-South cooperation, new modalities for funding international development are also emerging, such as innovative financing or revenue collected from emission trading. It would be useful to engage a dialogue on these opportunities and to reach a common understanding. EFTA01074046
Page 31 / 31
FI
NO
31 Methodology The present study was undertaken by the International Peace Institute (IPI) at the request of the Foreign Minister of Finland. Its objective is to provide an independent assessment and lessons learned of the 2012 elections for the WEOG seats at the Security Council. IPI interviewed more than 50 delegates and senior officials from all regional groups in member states missions in New York and in capitals, as well as a few independent experts. For approximately 30 of these interviews, IPI used a semi-structured questionnaire—matching the headings of this report—which allowed new ideas to be brought up during the discussion as a result of what the interviewees were saying. The other 20 interviews were based on a more limited set of questions. Most of these interviews took place in February and March 2012. All of them were conducted on a strictly confidential basis. IPI is an international, not-for-profit think tank—with offices in New York and Vienna— dedicated to promoting the prevention and settlement of conflict by strengthening multilateral institutions. It conducts its work in an independent and impartial way. IPI is grateful to the government of Finland for trusting the Institute with this study and for its willingness to promote transparency on a matter which is sensitive for all UN member states. IPI is also grateful to all officials, delegates, and experts who agreed to be interviewed and shared their views in the most candid way. The interviews were conducted by Terje Rod-Larsen, President of IPI, Francois Carrel- Billiard, Managing Director, and Francesco Mancini, Senior Director of Research. Frangois Carrel-Billiard served as Rapporteur. EFTA01074047
Pages 21–31
/ 31