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From: Office of Terje Rod-Larsen c 
Subject: IPI Regional Insights - April 2014 
Date: Thu, 17 Apr 2014 22:41:35 +0000 
INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE 
IPI Regional Insights 
April 2014 
The International Peace Institute's (IPI) Regional Insights covers select regional and thematic developments based on 
information from a variety of sources. It draws on the research of IPI experts and is provided exclusively to major 
donors and members. Each monthly issue covers challenges and opportunities related to international peace, security, 
and development. 
Africa 
South Africa• On May 7th South Africans go to the polls for the fourth time since the end of white rule twenty years ago. 
Over 2 million young voters will be voting for the first time since independence. The African National Congress (ANC) is 
expected to retain control of the government and parliament, perhaps with a slightly reduced majority. With persistent 
high unemployment (25.2%), widely publicized charges of corruption against President Jacob Zuma, and memories of 
police violence leading to the deaths of 34 unarmed striking miners at the Marikana platinum mine in August 2012, 
disillusion with the status quo has led to the rise of a new party and a more activist union movement. The main challenges 
come from the new Economic Freedom Fighters party led by radical youth leader Julius Malema, the COSATU union 
movement angered by the government's failure to prevent the attacks at Marikana, and the Democratic Alliance led by 
Helen Zille appealing to liberal mostly white voters. The latter floundered when efforts to create a new broader opposition 
party led by Dr. Mamphela Ramphele and Zille fell apart over personal differences. 
Pervasive poverty, continuation of de facto segregated residential zones, limited job opportunities for all but a small black 
elite, and the poor quality of education and medical care remain the legacy of apartheid for the great majority of South 
Africans, after 20 years of ANC rule. The May 7th election is unlikely to change these bitter realities. 
Mali: Newly installed Prime Minister Moussa Mara, 39, formed a government following the resignation of Mali's first post-
war Prime Minister Oumar Tatam Ly on April 5th. The outgoing prime minister quit just six months into office, along with 
the entire cabinet. The government's resignation reflected deep differences between President KeIta and Ly, as the latter 
became frustrated at being unable to enact economic reforms. President KeIta is also facing growing criticism over the 
lack of progress in brokering a settlement in the north. So far, little of the $4 billion in international aid, which was meant 
to be disbursed following last year's elections, has been forthcoming—in part because of procedural and governance 
problems in the country. Mara, who was a candidate in last year's presidential election, has stated that his top priorities 
will include strengthening governance and public services and improving relations between citizens and the state in post-
coup Mali. 
Middle East 
Egypt: With the presidential election just over a month away, a third candidate has come forward to compete against 
former defense minister Abdel Fattah Al Sisi and leftist candidate Hamdeen Sabahy: Mortada Mansour, a controversial 
lawyer and former football club president. Mansour is a serious critic of the West and has already made vitriolic 
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accusations against various governments regarding their relationship with Egypt over the last three years. In the 2012 
presidential elections, he attempted to run for president as a member of the Masr Al-Qawmi party but was ruled out by 
the elections committee. A number of local newspapers have interpreted the cartoonish campaign as an attempt to aid 
the Al Sisi bid by splitting the remaining votes. On April 15th, the Al Sisi campaign submitted 200,000 signatures of support 
to the election committee (eight times the required amount) while an Egyptian court ruled to ban current or former 
members of the Muslim Brotherhood from running in both the presidential elections and the parliamentary elections that 
will follow. The latter has been interpreted as yet another attempt to crack down on Islamists and a step away from an 
inclusive political process in Egypt. 
Security and the economy are the top challenges facing prospective candidates. At the IMF—World Bank meetings in 
Washington between April 11th and 13th, IMF mission chief for Egypt Christopher Jervis highlighted "big challenges" for 
Egypt's economy, including low growth, high unemployment, and an aggravated budget deficit. This points to the 
importance of outside financial support, which will likely come from the Gulf or, if negotiations are to resume, from the 
IMF itself. Indeed, the IMF had been in talks with the Egyptian government regarding a $4.8 billion bailout package for 
Egypt following the 2011 overthrow of Mubarak, but the negotiations ended inconclusively. 
Algeria: Despite incumbent Bouteflika's anticipated victory in the April 17 presidential election, Ali Benflis, ex-prime 
minister and leading opposition candidate—continued to ratchet up his presidential campaign until the final hour, as 
demonstrations by the nascent Barakat (Enough) movement and the Rally for Culture and Democracy party intensified. 
Meanwhile, army forces were again rushed to the southern province of Ghardaia in an effort to stem the violence 
between the local Mozabite and Chaamba communities, which has persisted since December despite calls for 
understanding by elders from both sides. Such fighting, while often attributed to ethno-religious differences, is most likely 
due to a confluence of factors that include increased arrival of migrants, their illegal construction on traditional Mozabite 
lands, the growth of informal economic activity, and a perception that police officers (largely Arab) are not seriously 
addressing Mozabite concerns. 
The conflict in Ghardaia may prove to be of increasing significance given the area's proximity to Algeria's rich oil and gas 
resources to the east and south. Further, Algeria's unreliable hydrocarbon production and surging domestic consumption 
are squeezing export volumes, compounding the longstanding risk of lower oil prices and further complicating the job of 
Algeria's future president. 
Morocco: Morocco's will to assert its influence on regional security and economic issues was again highlighted during the 
fourth EU-Africa Summit earlier this month, as was its continued rivalry with Algeria. During the summit, Morocco's role 
as a regional partner for the EU was put into focus when the spokesperson of the EU's Catherine Ashton stated that 
"cooperation between Morocco and the European Union is very close in matters of peace, security and conflict resolution, 
because this is a pre-requisite for stability in the region." 
Beyond Europe, Morocco is building its ties to West and sub-Saharan African countries—particularly through financial and 
banking sectors—that have been long-estranged from Morocco over the Western Sahara conflict. The Western Sahara is a 
key point of contention between Morocco and Algeria, which supports the Polisario Front. Building ties to the south of the 
Sahara may strengthen Rabat's position both on that issue and in its ongoing rivalry with Algeria. The mandate for the UN 
peacekeeping mission in the Western Sahara (MINURSO) is up for renewal at the end of this month, and while many 
within the UN have argued that the mandate should be expanded to include a human rights monitoring component, 
Morocco, backed by France, has resisted the idea. 
Yemen: While violence has subsided in the north following locally negotiated ceasefires between Houthi and Salafi 
elements, violence in the southern and eastern provinces, particularly Hadrawmat, has surged. During the first quarter of 
2014, according to one Interior Ministry account, one police officer and 41 soldiers were killed and 113 soldiers injured. 
Most attacks were attributed or linked to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. 
This spike in insecurity seems to have prompted a spree of high-level meetings over the country's future and the 
implementation of the National Dialogue Conference outcomes. Senior Yemeni military personnel discussed military and 
security cooperation with both the US and Qatar. UN Special Envoy Benomar—possibly in an effort to maintain balance 
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among Gulf Cooperation Council competitors—conducted a two-day visit to Riyadh, during which he discussed Saudi's 
support Yemen's political transition with the Kingdom's foreign and interior ministers. On April 29th, the next iteration of 
the Friend's of Yemen meeting will be held in London, co-chaired by the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. In addition to 
security issues, the need for sustained economic and development support and political support for Yemen's upcoming 
first constitutional draft will likely be discussed. 
Saudi Arabia: Following months of speculation, Saudi Arabia announced on April 15th that its veteran intelligence chief 
Prince Bandar bin Sultan would be replaced, "at his own request," by his deputy Yousef al-Idrissi. Bandar, who was 
appointed in July 2012, has had a special responsibility for the Levant, providing instrumental strategic thinking on the 
Saudi position vis-a-vis the Syrian crisis. He formerly served as Saudi ambassador to the US for 22 years. Local press hinted 
that the replacement may have also been instigated by recent health setbacks, which kept Bandar away from Riyadh for 
months at a time, leaving the intelligence agency—and the Syrian portfolio—in the hands of Interior Minister Mohammed 
bin Nayef. This is the latest of reshuffles taking place in Saudi Arabia following the high-profile appointment of King 
Abdullah's half-brother Mociren bin Abdul Aziz on March 27th as the second in line to the throne. 
Central and South Asia 
Afghanistan: Initial, partial results are putting the spotlight on two frontrunners following for the April 5th presidential and 
provincial elections: Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani. Both were presidential contenders in 2009, both served 
previously as ministers in the Karzai government, and both had ethnically balanced tickets. They represent more 
continuity than change, are expected to sign the bilateral security agreement with the United States, and are likely to 
continue some form of outreach to the Taliban. Turnout was strong for this first round, but concerns persist over 
complaints of fraud during the election and the potential for fraud during vote counting. Violence on election day 
appeared to be worse than initially reported, and the possibility remains that any one of the losers might violently 
challenge the results. If a runoff takes place, officials say it will not happen before May 2e. 
Pakistan: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's counterterrorism strategy appears to be limping along, while his government is 
under pressure from the right and the left. On the right, the Army chief of staff's recent public comments and press 
reports indicate the Pakistani military is chaffing against the current circumstances it finds itself in, which include required 
restraint towards militants as the negotiations with the Tehreek-i-Taliban and perceived slights to the army as the treason 
trial of former president (and general) Musharraf proceeds. Thus, the government's united front on its security strategy is 
showing some cracks. In addition, the left (Pakistan People's Party) are in an uproar over the government's proposed new 
counterterrorism law, which is seen as threatening free speech. 
For more information please contact: 
Maureen Quinn at .1-212-225-9604 or gumnPipinscorg
or 
Camilla Reksten-Monsen at .1-212-225-9602 or 
•The International Peace Institute  (IPI) is an independent not-for-profit think tank with a staff representing more than 20 nationalities with offices in New York 
across from the United Nations and in Vienna. IPI  promotes the  prevention and settlement of conflicts between and within states by strengthening international 
peace and security institutions. To achieve this  purpose, IPI employs a mix of policy research convening, publishing, and outreach. The views expressed here do not 
necessarily represent those of IPI. 
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