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From: Office of Terje Rod-Larsen <executiveofficegipinst.org> 
Subject: IPI Middle East Update - May 1, 2013 
Date: Wed, 01 May 2013 14:33:16 +0000 
INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE 
IPI Middle East Update 
May 1, 2013 
Egypt: Tensions between the government and the judiciary were reignited when the Islamist-dominated Upper House of 
Parliament (the country's temporary legislative authority) moved quickly to consider a series of judicial reforms that have 
met with wide skepticism and sparked a judicial revolt. If passed, the reforms would end the terms of more than 3,000 
judges by lowering their retirement age. The Muslim Brotherhood's unofficial stance claims that this move would 
"cleanse" the country's political arena of the "remnants" of the ousted regime, while the opposition has interpreted this 
as a purge of lawyers and judges who have, in recent times, voiced criticism of President Morsi and consider it another 
power grab aimed at consolidating the party's grip. The episode led to the resignation of Justice Minister Ahmed Mekki—
considered an Islamist himself—and also brought new waves of violence to the street, near the presidential palace and at 
the Supreme Constitutional Court. 
As the political turmoil continues to rock Egypt's transition, the country continues to deal with further economic woes and 
social malaise. On the former issue, press reports indicate that President Morsi may be looking eastward for a sizeable 
loan from Russia to help give his foreign currency reserves a much- needed boost in the wake of an ever-elusive IMF loan. 
On the latter front, the abrupt closure of Egypt Independent, an independent English daily and go-to source of news for 
international readers, once again raised questions about press freedom in the supposedly democratic post-Mubarak 
Egypt. 
Syria: It appears that the "red line" which the Obama administration had declared over the use of chemical weapons in 
Syria has been crossed after the United States announced on April 25th that such weapons—specifically, the agent sarin—
were likely to have been used on a "small scale" by the Syrian government against its own people. The confirmation came 
after weeks of speculation about the issue, most recently after confirmed Israeli intelligence reports. Though "all options 
are on the table," a military intervention is not imminent. But a shift in policy is being hotly debated in the media given 
that the US had previously described the use of chemical weapons as a "game-changer." 
This latest development comes about following a week-long offensive by government forces on the Sunni district—and 
former rebel stronghold—of Jdeidat al-Fadel outside Damascus, which culminated in one of the bloodiest incidents of the 
conflict. News agencies reported that more than 100 were killed (some activists claim the death toll was much higher), 
many of whom were civilians. As the death toll rises, the humanitarian situation continues to worsen to the extent that 
the UN high commissioner for refugees announced last week that approximately 8,000 Syrians flee the country every day. 
Jordan: While there are conflicting reports, it appears that Jordan may have given the Israeli government a green light to 
send drones into Syria through Jordanian airspace. The drones are intended to collect information and conduct 
reconnaissance missions but are also capable of carrying missiles. If this is true, it could indicate a willingness by Jordan to 
counter the spillover risks more actively, particularly after the April le announcement that the Pentagon would be 
sending about 200 troops and army planners to Jordan. 
Palestinians: International support for Hamas will get another boost during the Turkish prime minster's upcoming visit to 
Gaza. While the visit was discouraged by US Secretary of State John Kerry, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan remains set on 
visiting at the end of May. The visit, as well as a recent trip by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to Turkey, 
has led to press speculation that Turkey is positioning itself to assume what has been Egypt's role as an honest broker in 
oft-discussed reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah. Alternatively, the Turkish prime minister may be trying to 
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balance his recent acceptance of an apology from Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu for Israeli Defense Forces' stopping of 
the Gaza blockade—busting ship, Marmara, in 2010. The Marmara incident led to the death of nine Turkish citizens and 
generated a significant rift between Israel and Turkey, two otherwise long-time political and economic partners. 
Iraq: Above all else, the recent situation in Iraq has recently been marked by a wide and deepening sectarian conflict. As 
Iraqis went to the polls for provincial elections on April 20th, the first elections since US troops withdrew, deadly sectarian 
violence spread across the country. As of April 26th the UN Mission in Iraq estimated the toll of the dead and wounded 
across the country to be in the hundreds and the UN envoy to Iraq called for both sides to show "restraint." The clashes 
are among the fiercest since the US pullout from the country in 2011. 
Bahrain: Ten weeks and fifteen rounds of talks later, the Bahraini National Dialogue continues. According to press reports, 
the dialogue faces some procedural issues regarding the agenda, structure, and outcome of the talks. Some believe that 
the issues should be put forth in a referendum while others affirm that the king should be allowed to exercise his 
executive rights and decide on the ultimate process himself. There has been much speculation that Prince Salman will 
enter the dialogue, though he says that he will only "step in" at the necessary time. Bahrain's human rights record has 
received international attention: a top-level European parliamentary delegation visited Manama on April 29th to discuss 
human rights, among other issues, and the Bahraini government criticized as 'biased' the annual US State Department 
report on the rights situation in the kingdom. 
For more information please contact: 
Maureen Quinn at +1-212-225-9604 or guinneipinst.org
or 
Camilla Reksten-Monsen at +1-212-225-9602 or rekstenfaipinst.org 
• The Middle East Update presents a summary of on-going developments in the Middle East based on information from the local and intemational  press, expert 
analyses, and other sources. This service is  provided by the International Peace Institute  (IPI) exclusively to donors to its Middle East  program. The views expressed
here do not necessarily represent those of IPI. 
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