EFTA00615279

POLIO AFGHANISTAN 
BACKGROUND BRIEFS FOR BMGF SECURITY AND ACCESS 
STRATEGY SESSION: AFGHANISTAN 
1. Drivers of insecurity and conflict 
NB: Because of the sensitive nature of 
the 
subject matter, 
information 
denoted with an asterisk (*) is 
confidential and can be elaborated 
upon in oral briefings with IPI. 
It should be noted at the start that as 
of now, the polio eradication 
programme 
in 
Afghanistan 
is 
achieving far better results than its 
far 
larger, 
more 
expensive 
counterpart in Pakistan. Leaving 
aside the disparity in scale (landmass 
and population), a major factor 
responsible 
for 
Afghanistan's 
success is the following: 
The 
Afghan 
Taliban, 
under the authority of 
Mullah Omar, have issued 
explicit approval of and 
support for the polio 
eradication programme, 
with 
the 
following 
conditions: 
(i) each 
anti-polio 
campaign 
in 
areas 
under Taliban control 
or 
influence 
should 
be 
coordinated 
by 
the 
Afghan 
authorities with the "shadow" 
Taliban authorities in advance; 
(ii) a "safe passage letter" issued by 
the Afghan Taliban should be 
obtained; and 
(iii) no foreigners should be part of 
the health team. 
So far all sides have kept to this 
bargain. 
It is equally clear that there is 
misreporting on anti-polio coverage in 
Afghanistan, though on a smaller 
scale than in its neighbor to the south 
and east, including corruption and 
poor accounting.* 
CONFIDENTIAL- DO NOT CIRCULATE 
!PI 
INTERNATIONAL 
PEACE 
INSTITUTE 
HIGHLIGHTS 
• The 
explicit 
Afghan 
Taliban 
approval of the polio eradication 
programme is a major reason for 
the success of polio eradication in 
country. 
• The upcoming elections, changing 
political alliances and withdrawal 
of NATO troops, will worsen the 
situation. 
• The 
unpredictability 
in 
the 
intensity, scope and magnitude of 
expected developments will lead to 
deterioration in a well-functioning 
polio eradication programme. 
• A further challenge will be the 
military situation, in particular the 
withdrawal of the NATO/ISAF 
forces. 
EFTA00615279

POLIO AFGHANISTAN 
Trends 
IPI is of the view that the elections, 
scheduled to be held in early April, 
and the outcome (or postponement 
of the elections) will lead to 
increasing insecurity and turbulence, 
already 
in 
evidence. 
Political 
and 
health 
authorities, at 
the center but 
especially 
at 
the provincial, 
district 
and 
lower 
levels, 
will be far too 
preoccupied 
with the elections, political alliances 
of 
convenience, 
switching 
of 
loyalties, and deals being made and 
broken all the time, to pay the 
sustained 
attention 
that 
polio 
eradication requires.* 
The Afghan Taliban 
see their 
patience 
paying 
off. 
Their 
spokesperson has declared that 
anyone who is a candidate, or who 
votes, will be a target. 
Impact 
With 
unpredictability 
in 
the 
intensity, scope and magnitude of 
the developments identified above, 
it is expected that the present, fairly 
well-functioning polio eradication 
programme will suffer massively. 
This negative impact will not only be 
the result of insecurity and fighting 
within Afghanistan, but also of an 
interruption in the regular anti-polio 
campaigns, as families flee across 
porous borders. 
Prospects for 2014 & 2015 
Afghan Pashtun families in the 
southern 
and 
eastern 
Afghan 
provinces which border on Pakistan, 
will flee into Pakistan's tribal and 
adjacent areas, if (as is likely) there 
are 
clashes 
between Afghan 
security 
forces 
and militias and 
the 
Afghan 
Taliban and other 
militant 
and 
jihadi groups, as 
well as Pakistani 
militants 
and 
jihadis supporting 
the latter. 
Since the withdrawal of NATO forces 
will not take place overnight, it is 
likely that NATO/ISAF bases and 
pockets of control will see combat 
and attacks. 
The withdrawal date of US troops is 
still up in the air, with President 
Karzai refusing to sign a Bilateral 
Security Agreement with the US 
unless certain conditions are met 
(not those reported in the media).* 
Hence while the US wished to have 
this signed prior to troop withdrawal, 
this will probably not happen. 
The US withdrawal, the largest 
contingent in Afghanistan, will be 
staggered over time. It is certain 
that between io,000 and 30,000 US 
troops 
(as 
trainers, 
counter-
terrorism and counter-insurgency 
personnel) will stay on beyond the 
withdrawal, in 6 to 8 US bases. 
CONFIDENTIAL- DO NOT CIRCULATE 
Recommendations 
• BMGF should work closely with its 
national 
and 
international 
interlocutors to prepare scenarios 
for continued delivery of anti-polio 
drops, especially in the areas 
bordering Pakistan. 
• BMGF should request the Afghan 
central authorities to coordinate 
emergency plans (this will have to 
be broached very delicately as 
Kabul's position on everything is 
that "it's not a problem!"). 
• BMGF should ask its interlocutors 
in both Pakistan and Afghanistan 
to strengthen anti-polio drops 
delivery at all border crossings (as 
many people cross both ways via 
unofficial crossings as via official 
ones). 
EFTA00615280